Trump’s tariff war as opportunity for the Global South

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Trump’s Motivations

  1. Domestic Politics
    • Panders to America’s “silent majority” disillusioned with globalisation.
    • Uses xenophobic and populist politics instead of structural economic reforms.
    • Attacks liberal international order → sanctions, tariffs, weakening institutions, limiting aid, cracking down on immigration.
  3. Economic Leverage
    • Tariffs act as a hidden tax on U.S. consumers/companies.
    • Goal: strengthen America’s economy, curb China’s rise.
    • Protectionism → subsidies, unilateral policies, dollar dominance.
    • Hypocrisy: pressures India to open markets but keeps high tariff walls itself (e.g., tobacco 350%, dairy 200%).
  5. Strategic Interests
    • Bipartisan consensus on tariffs and checking China.
    • India targeted despite Russia sanctions rationale.
    • U.S. sees China as main threat to unipolarity; tariffs also serve U.S. security goals.

Lessons for India

  1. Re-examine U.S. Partnership
    • U.S. still engages Pakistan, may sideline India in Quad, restricts tech/manufacturing ties.
    • Trump disrupted 25 years of India-U.S. partnership.
  3. Stronger Assertion
    • India must confront U.S. more firmly.
    • Contrast: U.S. avoids tariffs on China due to rare-earth dependence, but presses India.
    • Past compliance (oil from Iran/Venezuela, cotton duty waiver) weakened India’s stance.
  5. Recalibrate Foreign Policy
    • Modi’s personalized diplomacy and symbolic gestures yielded limited results.
    • Misreading U.S. support by equating economic size with strategic utility.
    • Partial abandonment of non-alignment hurt India; worsened China–Pakistan alliance, strained neighbourhood ties, and diaspora faced racism.

Way Forward for India

  1. Capitalize on Polycrisis
    • Champion multipolarity as alternative to U.S. unipolarity/China-U.S. bipolarity.
    • Push for a New Economic Deal benefiting Global South.
  3. Domestic Reforms
    • Fix structural weaknesses:
      • Manufacturing at 4-decade low.
      • High unemployment, stagnant private investment.
      • Weak scientific research, underutilized PSUs.
    • Restore stakeholder trust, promote equitable growth, attract investment.
  5. Strategic Diplomacy
    • Build long-term relationships beyond transactional ties.
    • Forge bipartisan consensus domestically.
    • Collaborate with Global South for equitable world order.
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