The Gender Angle to India’s Economic Vulnerabilities

By Sumit Thakur

India’s Growth vs. Tariff Shock

India: $4.19 trillion economy, poised to become 3rd largest globally.
U.S. proposing 50% tariffs on $40 bn of Indian exports → risk of ~1% GDP loss.
Labour-intensive sectors hit: textiles, gems, leather, footwear.
These employ millions of women → economic + gendered crisis.

Gendered Vulnerability

U.S. share in India’s exports: 18%.
Indian exporters face 30–35% cost disadvantage vs. Vietnam, others.
Sectors employ ~50 mn people → large share women.
Female Labour Force Participation Rate (FLFPR): 37–41.7%, below global avg. & China’s 60%.
IMF: Closing gender gap could boost GDP by 27%.
Barriers: cultural norms, safety, poor transport, unpaid care work, weak policies.

Demographic Dividend Dilemma

Window till 2045; risk of demographic burden if women excluded.
Rural women: mostly unpaid, low-productivity work.
Urban women: constrained by safety, transport, sanitation, care burden.
Lessons: Southern Europe’s low FLFPR dragged growth.

Global Lessons

U.S. WWII: equal pay, childcare → women’s workforce integration.
China (post-1978): raised FLFPR to 60% via education + care infra.
Japan: FLFPR 63% → 70%, GDP per capita ↑ 4%.
Netherlands: flexible part-time work with full benefits.

Structural Reforms for India

Gaps: legal protections, childcare infra, skill-building.
Models:
- Karnataka Shakti Scheme → +40% female bus ridership.
- Urban Company gig platform → 15k+ women with income, benefits.
- Rajasthan’s Urban Employment Guarantee Scheme → 65% women workforce.

Conclusion

U.S. tariffs = wake-up call for India.
Women’s economic empowerment = strategic necessity for growth resilience.
Choice: Invest in women → inclusive prosperity OR neglect → stagnation & fragility.